Friday, August 17, 2007

The Black Swan

Tom Peters shares his thoughts on how A Black Swan Moment has impacted our society through political perspectives, financial models, and personal confidence. We live our daily lives assuming the world around us will maintain a certain level of consistency, in relation to our current level of knowledge, without considering possible Black Swan events creeping up on our familiarized environment.

What can we do about these Black Swan moments? We can't ignore or avoid them. Instead we must change our way of looking at things. We must reorganize our way of relying on assumptions, based on past experience, and anticipate the unknowns of the future. Instead of looking at past history as fixed data (something we have conquered), view experiences as variable, leaving room for new techniques and strategies. What areas do you see as potential danger zones for invisible Black Swans? What can we do to prepare ourselves adequately for these unexpected events? How can we use them towards our advantage? In what ways can we guard ourselves against Black Swans in business? ...

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

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